Nation2Nation @Events_N2N invites you to take a tour on Monday (Oct. 19) of Gingolx (Kincolith), a Nisga’a community located near the proposed #KsiLisimsLNG project. Register today: nation2nation.ca/events

In my experience, it’s hard to lose money when you’ve got top tier assets and top tier management. It’s a lack of patience that usually does it.

Big Mike is like Micheal Jordan - people just wanna watch (myself included) despite not makikg any $$$

It’s coming. Hang on tight $TOU

Major productivity degradation across the Permian's Top 10 oil producers as Tier 1 acreage exhaustion continues to make its mark on IP180's. Delaware basin in particular is rapidly losing productivity as top producers have seen a 30+% reduction in IP180 barrels since 2019! 🛢💰

Canada’s oil and gas emissions dropped in 2025 despite increased production: report bnnbloomberg.ca/markets/oil/…

TMF, $CVE acquired $MEG for 1Q of FCF. This deal will provide for a similar opportunity. The notion of value is up to the market to assign. $CVE is taking advantage of competition that has not done its homework and shareholders will be rewarded. After $MEG the stock doubled..

The price action on Cenovus $CVE.TO today reminds me of Whitecap’s response to the Veren acquisition. Let me share some thoughts, as I may know a thing or two about what they acquired today and where it’s going and no, it’s definitely not for the tax pools. -One may think initially that the per-flowing cost is high, which is true, and that’s why Athabasca $ATH.TO management absolutely had to do it. We’re talking about more than 100,000 bbl/d, and yet I expect production on these assets to accelerate and double over the next 2–3 years, with Leismer at 40k bbl/d, Hangingstone optimized to 12k bbl/d, continued growth at Duvernay to 20k boe/d but likely to be divested...and greenfield development at Corner. -Corner is a wonderful excuse to showcase to the government and utilize the small greenfield royalty credits that the government was advancing, while continuing to optimize and brownfielding the FCCL assets. Corner is a high quality asset with wonderful geology. -Just like with the $MEG.TO acquisition, people assume an 80k bbl/d transaction. It wasn’t. Production at Christina Lake North is currently around 115,000 bbl/d, should be about 125,000 bbl/d by year-end in my view, and over the next two years should reach 150,000 bbl/d. Essentially, the per-flowing metric should be looked at differently when there is an inflection point in production growth. -Reminder that $CVE.TO was trading at $60k/flowing when it acquired $MEG.TO but the stock doubled since lol. -Now here is my key message : The main reason these assets were acquired is the central processing facilities, CPFs !! which are extremely expensive today. Getting an asset like this is very rare and would cost close to $2.4B in capex for Leismer, plus maybe three years of development. Look at the Leismer resource as an example in the picture : starting 2027 it can produce at 40,000 bbl/d for the next 50 years with no decline on the asset and a very low cost of supply. At netbacks of, say, $40 CAD, this whole transaction is paid for in less than 10 years. But remember, we also have Corner, Hangingstone, and Duvernay, plus production growth. So is this really such a horrible deal for Cenovus which likely to report close to $3.5B in FFF for Q3? -Although I am not currently affiliated with Cenovus, I am a former employee and do have subject-matter knowledge of these assets. They will do a wonderful job optimizing them and reducing their cost of supply. -I rarely share what I buy/sell and this is not investment advice, I am not an financial advisor and not qualified on anything related to finances but today I sold all my $ATH.TO shares and bought more $CVE.TO, as I believe this is a good deal for all parties, and investors have underappreciated the quality of Athabasca’s assets, as they have for the past five years. -Congratulations to all and thanks for following my account for many years, many of you understand how big today is for me. Good work friends. 🫡🪒

Got them here:

Every day that passes, I am ever more grateful that I live in Alberta. If Alberta did not exist, my family would’ve moved years ago.

$TOU 2027 FCF after maintenance capex ($1.85B), before dividend (C$ after tax, my est.): AECO C$2.50: $2.2B ($5.73/sh, 9%) AECO C$3.25: $2.5B ($6.44/sh, 11%) AECO C$4.00: $2.8B ($7.15/sh, 12%) At $3.50 HH, $13 JKM, $75 WTI. Sensitivity analysis below ⤵️🙂

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For all the pessimists in the crowd, who haven’t gotten over the Trudeau years, Canada is building again. To make money you have to be politically agnostic and asses the ruling government’s policies in the same way you would evaluate any risk. Don’t let your last political leanings/allegiances stop you from making money. The time to deploy capital was November 2025, but we are still in the early innings. Risk on.

Not announced in the presser, but rather in a briefing to journalists was this tidbit: an open season for Pacific Link will be held in Spring 2027 (An open season is when producers/shippers of oil make binding commitments for pipeline space). nationalpost.com/news/canada…

🇬🇧Centrica just locked in 20 years of Canadian LNG. The deal is 1 Mt a year from 🇨🇦Ksi Lisims LNG, a planned 12 Mt/yr floating export plant in British Columbia, on a free-on-board basis. The price wasn't disclosed. Ksi Lisims now has offtake deals or heads of agreement covering 9 of its 12 Mt. Shell, TotalEnergies and 🇦🇺Santos signed before Centrica. It's still a proposed project. Buyers are committing before it's even built. 🇪🇺Brussels and Ottawa plan to boost LNG shipments under an "Alliance for the Future" statement due at the EU-Canada summit later in October. European buyers are paying for gas that never goes near the strait. How much of Europe's winter gap can Canada actually cover before 2030?

More good LNG news for Canada! Ksi Lisims LNG and Centrica have signed an HoA for 1mtpa . That means 9 of the project’s 12 mtpa are spoken for, from German, British, UK, French and Australian buyers/companies. Must be very close to FID. 🤝Finalized Sales and Purchase Agreements: Shell 2 MTPA, TotalEnergies 2 MTPA, Uniper SE 2 MTPA 📝Heads of Agreement: Centrica Energy 1 MTPA, SEFE 1 MTPA, Santos 1 MTPA boereport.com/2026/09/30/cen…

For those of you who may doubt the advancement of Ksi Lisms…..and the impacts these projects will have on Cdn. Gas producers.

How developers in the #Montney #naturalgas reserve in BC and Alberta are using advanced Water Resource Hubs to manage and treat water, to be reused or pumped back into underground storage: lnkd.in/p/g2Umu5nn From the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers @OilGasCanada

“Canada is going to build its way to prosperity. We’re focused on major projects, and this reflects a strategic position for the government,” said Tim Hodgson, Canada’s minister of energy and natural resources Ottawa approves $3.5-billion LNG expansion on B.C. coast under “one project, one review” process. Construction for the new storage tank and liquefaction infrastructure is slated to begin in early 2027 financialpost.com/commoditie…

Will add, (reflecting the size/scale/LNG advantage: Mitsubishi are fetching > $210 boe Canadian on this gas, whereas $OVV are fetching $14 -20 / boe Canadian on the same gas from these wells. Canadian EP’s need to get a move on here & start reaching higher. #CanadianLNG