☦️ | Executive Editor, @AmericanAffrs | Senior Fellow, @BullMooseProj | 2025 Publius Fellow, @ClaremontInst | 🪬

Washington, DC
Fall 2026 issue online: -Rep. Riley Moore on Industrial Deterrence -Agencies without Agency -Biotech's Deepseek Moment -The New Newark -Texas vs California -Funding National Resilience -Failing Like a State -Global Islamism after Unipolarity & more americanaffairsjournal.org/i…
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Daniel Bring retweeted
The last major refinery was built in 1976. 50 years ago. We have got to start building refineries in this country again. At least in this hemisphere. American consumers should not be subject to insane diesel and gas prices just because Russia decided to invade Ukraine. We need hemispheric energy sovereignty.
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My colleagues at @BullMooseProj let me write 12 pages on the crisis in American copper smelting and some potential solutions. Very proud of this memo, and grateful to folks who check it out.
Copper is indispensable for infrastructure. And 30 years ago, America was self-sufficient when it came to copper supplies. Now? As a new memo from Senior Fellow Daniel Bring reveals, we rely on imports for half of our supply.
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In August, copper output from Chile fell to a multi-year low of 369,500 tonnes, the lowest level in 15 years (see chart 👇). Chile’s Mining Minister, Daniel Mas, has attributed the decline to “temporary [weather-related] problems” and says he has “good expectations for [a recovery in] production next year”. @BankofAmerica forecasts a 4.2% growth in global copper supply next year, supported in part by an expected recovery in Chilean production. Yet... Bank of America still expects the global copper market to REMAIN IN DEFICIT. The Chilean authorities have historically been more likely to revise copper production forecasts DOWN than up. In other words, the expected recovery in Chilean production is critical to the global supply-growth outlook, especially since the country is the world's largest copper producer. So, even if the recovery in copper production materializes, which the country's track record of underperformance suggests it won't, next year's global copper market will remain firmly in deficit.
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Copper is indispensable for infrastructure. And 30 years ago, America was self-sufficient when it came to copper supplies. Now? As a new memo from Senior Fellow Daniel Bring reveals, we rely on imports for half of our supply.
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For a generation, experts told our towns manufacturing was gone for good. @POTUS called a shuttered plant what it is: a betrayal. Now, the factories are coming back to Main Street. Who’s going to run them? That’s where Foundry School comes in. We’re investing in the next generation of American manufacturing leaders. newsmax.com/politics/foundry…
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Daniel Bring retweeted
Colorized Photograph of Bishop Raphael Hawaweeny
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2008 was an oil crisis. 2026 is a refining crisis. 2008 (peak) Oil = $147 Diesel = $4.76 retail Gasoline = $4.16 retail Today Oil = $95 Diesel = $6.53 retail Gasoline = $4.52 retail
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Ppl often do not grasp the scale of intellectual, policy, and advocacy infrastructure in the US relative to other western states. This is a good example.
The Hudson Institute alone has roughly the same budget as all the major French think tanks combined (And it's far from the biggest US think tank too)
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“We need to show results. That’s what everything we do is about. We want this to be a catalyst. Get things done. Get things built.” - Julius Krein, founder and CEO of NAIA
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Introducing Takeoff, a first-of-its-kind conference on governing ourselves in the age of artificial intelligence. We’re bringing together a small group of public servants, AI researchers, and other leading voices in Washington, D.C., November 13–15, 2026.
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This is the last year, this the last of the Greek emperors. And, alas, how sadly those around him talk. Kyr Theophilos Palaiologos in his grief, in his despair, says: “I would rather die than live.”
The reason so few westeners know Eastern Roman history is cause its like watching your 20 year old childhood dog get tortured by 5 rottwillers from all sides everyday for 1000 years, killed, and revived as a demon that hates you People can't take it
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NEW: “Legitimate disagreements over energy and environmental policy may continue across the aisle, but they should not obscure the remarkable consensus that now exists around fixing the process itself,” write @SenArmstrong and @RepScottPeters in an essay on permitting reform.
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this open letter is 3 paragraphs with one underspecified sentence about pacing and doesn’t present any sort of proposal for what should happen. the ai industry needs to do a better job of articulating what they need from government if they actually want this
[Writing this in a personal capacity, not on behalf of my employer (Anthropic).] Jacob’s thread is very worth reading. Here’s my birds-eye view of the situation with risks from AI: 1. AI developers believe their technology could cause human extinction (or similarly bad outcomes). This could happen in the next few years. In general, the more senior the employee, the more concerned they are. 2. Why do AI developers continue despite the risk? Due to a mixture of commercial incentives and a belief that they are in a race with other, less responsible AI developers that will abuse the technology or develop it less safely. 3. Unlike traditional software, we can’t “program” AIs to behave how we’d like. AIs frequently severely misbehave. For instance, AIs from multiple developers recently hacked their way out of secure evaluation environments and into real-world companies, even though no one asked them to do this. 4. We have methods that can nudge AIs towards better behavior, but nothing that can robustly align them. Insofar as there is a plan, it’s to make sure that AIs are good enough at alignment training that they can align their successors better than we can align current AIs. 5. Many AI developer staff desperately want to slow down to figure out how to build AI more safely. That was the intent of this open letter (which I signed): pacingthefrontier.com/ I work on safety research at Anthropic because I hope my work will reduce the chance of these extinction-level bad outcomes.
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👀
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The strategic competition with China introduces conflict and complexity to biotech research and innovation. Find out more in the Fall 2026 issue: “Biotech’s DeepSeek Moment: How America Can Recover Its Edge” by @OliviaWKosloff.
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Great to finally read @_brianpotter in the pages of American Affairs!
“Wherever we look, we see the same thing: American transit agencies struggle to rein in costs when building transportation infrastructure,” writes @_brianpotter. “In the United States, we pay far more for our transit systems than virtually anywhere else in the world.”
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“The reindustrialization of our steel industry is not only possible; it is utterly necessary if America is to regain its status as an industrial republic and remain a global superpower,” writes @RepRileyMoore.
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I'm surprised there isn't a bigger sea change among climate folks who keep trying to tell me solar, wind, batteries, and transmission are sufficient. Either learn to love gas, or find other solutions, because it turns out industrial demand is dynamic
At the moment: 472 gas-fired power plants are under development in the US, with 270 gigawatts of combined generation capacity.
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Restoring American industrial independence is not optional! In my new essay for @AmericanAffrs, I tell the story of Weirton Steel and make the case that America's hollowed out industrial heartland isn’t just an economic disaster but also a national security crisis. Highlights 🧵
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Fall 2026 issue online: -Rep. Riley Moore on Industrial Deterrence -Agencies without Agency -Biotech's Deepseek Moment -The New Newark -Texas vs California -Funding National Resilience -Failing Like a State -Global Islamism after Unipolarity & more americanaffairsjournal.org/i…
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When did @JoinFAI's streak in @AmericanAffrs print issues begin? Few can remember. But it continues with @Allinallnotbad's outstanding long-take on the deep roots of political (dys)function in Texas and California.
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