🙌Time for celebration! 🙌 It's been exactly one year since my Substack launch! I'm very proud and happy with what I have achieved since then. Not just growth-wise, but also the quality of my articles and deep dives. With every word I wrote down, I became a better investor and writer. And probably most importantly, I've met a ton of great smart people, both on SS and here on X. Surrounding myself with other great investor is invaluable. If you like what I do here, you're certainly gonna like what I do over there. Just a quick summary of what I do: I'm most proud of my deep dives, which I believe to have greatly improved in quality over the past year. Amongst others, I have covered $ASML, $NVO, $CSU, $DLO, $KRKNF, $LLY, $TMDX. ($TSM deep dive coming soon). But I do a lot more: I build valuation models for companies in my portfolio and on my watchlist, write about important things I see in the market, and send out a monthly portfolio update. I also give live updates on my buys/sells, and you can track how well those updates have performed since then. I want to thank everyone who has already joined me on my journey there. If you haven't, you can find a direct link to the Substack in my bio. I know it came at a cost. I haven't posted as much and as high quality as I used to do on X. But since I became a father I just don't really have the time. Special thanks to some of the great guys that I've been interacting with on both platforms. Make sure to follow them here on X and on Substack as well: @TheBigBerbowski @SixSigmaCapital @GabGrowth @jimmyinvest @jpinsights @pequityresearch @meeijer @TheRayMyers @mvcinvesting @babyfolio @rebound_capital @ManuInvests @glocalinvestor @ThierryBorgeat @bdinvestingg @DD17_Capital @WealthyReadings @euro__stocks @crux_capital_

Well well well. $NVO $1.1B deal with Nanexa for up to 5 molecules with dosing intervals of once monthly to once quarterly. NVO had earlier an evaluation deal with Nanexa but chose $ASND as primary partner for once monthly semaglutide and other molecules as well. But novo canceled that deal last week. Now NVO goes back to Nanexa. Not often we see that Nanexa already have preclinical semaglutide data supporting up to once quarterly dosing. But it’s not specifically mentioned in the PR But semaglutide and Amycretin is for sure among those 5 molecules. Maybe Cagrilintide as well Congratulations to Nenexa and its shareholders. $LLY $VKTX

If you didn’t read all of my live tweets from $NVO ’s Capital Markets Day today, here is a summary of the most important things I took away from the presentations: Mike Doustdar opened the day by acknowledging that Novo needs to convince investors that the company has a bright future. “We are very convinced that Novo has a bright future. But we also realize that it is not enough that we are convinced.” Novo wants to become a larger and much more diversified company by 2035, despite semaglutide losing patent protection in Europe in 2031 and the U.S. in 2032. The new ambitions include launching more than five multi-blockbusters by 2030 and generating more than DKK 150B in annual sales from the current pipeline by 2035. Mike Doustdar said the DKK 150B target is already significantly risk-adjusted and does not include future acquisitions or partnerships. But the communication around future growth was one of the biggest problems of the day. Novo initially announced that it aims to grow revenue “in line with industry peers” through 2030. The problem was that Novo defines its peer group as 14 major pharmaceutical companies, including $LLY , AstraZeneca, J&J, AbbVie, Novartis, Roche and Pfizer, among others. That left investors guessing what level of growth Novo was actually targeting. Mike Doustdar was later asked about the lack of clarity and said Novo aims to grow at least in line with its peers. It was not until several hours later that CFO Karsten Munk Knudsen finally put a number on it: mid-single-digit annual revenue growth through 2030, likely around 4% to 6%. Personally, I think this was incredibly poor communication. If you introduce a new growth ambition at Capital Markets Day, investors should not have to spend several hours trying to figure out what it actually means. R&D is getting a major overhaul. Novo started first-in-human trials for only three new drug candidates last year. Martin Holst Lange called that “not good enough.” The new ambition is to start first-in-human trials for at least 15 new drug candidates every year. Novo also wants to reduce the time from the first dose in humans to filing for regulatory approval to no more than five years, with AI playing a major role in designing trials and accelerating development. The obesity pipeline is becoming much broader. Novo highlighted zenagamtide, UBT251 and its triple agonist, while also revealing that it has five oral obesity drugs in development, including oral amylin. Novo is also working on several once-monthly obesity treatments and plans to move three to four monthly candidates into development. And the strategy is no longer simply about achieving the greatest possible weight loss. Novo wants different treatments for different patients. Some may prioritize maximum weight loss, while others may care more about fewer side effects, preserving muscle and bone, taking a pill or only needing treatment once a month. Pills were probably one of the biggest themes of the entire day. Martin Holst Lange said directly that “pills are the future.” Oral Wegovy has now reached 7 million prescriptions since its U.S. launch in January. Novo says Oral Wegovy accounts for more than 80% of new-to-brand prescriptions in the U.S. oral obesity market and is running at around 285,000 total weekly prescriptions compared with around 45,000 for Lilly’s Foundayo. Novo wants to “win the oral market” and increase its oral GLP-1 manufacturing capacity from serving around 1.5 million people with obesity today to around 15 million by 2030. The international rollout is also accelerating. Oral Wegovy has sold around 660,000 packs during its first 10 weeks in the UK. Novo says the launch has expanded the UK obesity market by 20% to 25% by volume while increasing Novo’s GLP-1 obesity market share by 12 to 15 percentage points. Mexico will be the next market, and Novo expects Oral Wegovy to be available in more than 20 markets by the end of 2027. We also got new CagriSema data. In REIMAGINE 5, a lower dose of CagriSema delivered 12.4% weight loss compared with 9.1% for a lower dose of Lilly’s tirzepatide in people with diabetes. Martin Holst Lange reiterated that Novo remains confident in CagriSema despite previous disappointments and believes it can compete. Karsten Munk Knudsen later made clear how much Novo is relying on CagriSema, calling it “one of the stronger levers” for delivering the company’s growth through 2030. Novo also believes the obesity market itself has enormous room to grow. Hong Chow said less than 2% of people living with obesity are currently treated with a GLP-1, while patients remain on treatment for an average of only around nine months. Novo therefore does not see obesity simply as a fight with Lilly for existing patients. It wants to expand the overall market and bring more people into treatment. That connects with another major theme throughout the day: consumer behavior. Jamey Millar said patients are increasingly seeking out obesity treatments themselves. “Consumers are not just end users, but also budget holders and decision makers.” Novo wants to meet those patients through direct-to-consumer marketing, telehealth and online access. Around 85% of Wegovy sales in the UK are now online. In Germany, the figure has increased from around 7% to 30% in a year, while online Wegovy sales in both markets are around 5x higher than last year. Novo plans to expand this direct-to-consumer approach into more international markets. Beyond obesity and diabetes, Novo is also diversifying. A new business area will initially focus on cardiovascular and liver disease, although Mike Doustdar made clear that “there is more to come.” Novo currently treats around 46 million patients, and many of them also live with cardiovascular or liver conditions. Novo is even looking at oral insulin again, with Martin Holst Lange saying advances in drug development and manufacturing have made it attractive to pursue once more. Acquisitions will also play a larger role. Mike Doustdar said Novo plans to become more active in business development and acquisitions and acknowledged that Novo cannot discover everything itself. Novo potentially has capacity for acquisitions worth around DKK 300B, but Mike Doustdar said the focus will be on the quality of the opportunity rather than its size. He also would not rule out acquiring products that are already on the market. Manufacturing was another major topic. Novo says it now has the production capacity needed to support its growth ambitions. Its drug substance factories can deliver around 3x the production capacity they were originally designed for, while partnerships give Novo additional flexibility to rapidly scale pill production depending on demand. On the financial side, Novo expects its operating margin to remain broadly stable through 2030. At the same time, R&D spending will increase from around 17% of revenue today as Novo tries to build the much larger pipeline outlined during the day. Then there is the elephant in the room: the semaglutide patent cliff. Mike Doustdar acknowledged that prices will fall when semaglutide loses patent protection. But Novo also believes lower prices will significantly expand the obesity market by bringing many more patients into treatment. Jamey Millar said Novo wants to build as much volume as possible for its newer medicines before semaglutide loses U.S. patent protection in 2032. Mike Doustdar compared the situation with Novo’s insulin business, where older products lost patent protection but the company continued introducing newer and better versions. He believes semaglutide could become a standard treatment by 2035, while Novo moves patients toward newer products with longer patent protection. His example was CagriSema: “We have a better semaglutide, CagriSema, which has a much longer patent.” “And then, of course, we have the pills as well.” There was also a rather unusual moment during one of the breaks. Novo apparently forgot to turn off the microphones during the livestream, even though management seemed to think they were speaking privately. One comment could be heard clearly: “We are going through a period right now where it is almost impossible to provide guidance.” I cannot say with certainty who said it. Novo is also becoming a smaller organization. Mike Doustdar said another 4,000 employees have left the company on top of the previously announced 9,000 job cuts. He said the decisions were difficult but necessary as Novo changes how the company operates. Mike Doustdar ended Capital Markets Day by returning to the long-term ambition: “We plan to be a bigger company in 2035 despite the very significant patent expiry of semaglutide.”

Stats don't lie. Let's hope this one does.

Who the fuck is Rothschild Redburn and why do we care about analyst price targets 😊

🚨Novo has released strong results in both REIMAGINE 5 (T2D with metformin +\- SGLT2i) and REDEFINE 9, both using 1.0/1.0mg CagriSema. All numbers are efficacy estimand. REIMAGINE 5 was a head to head of CagriSema 1.0/1.0mg vs 5mg tirzepatide. ▪️ Weight loss was 12.4% for CS, compared with 9.1% for tirzepatide, giving CS superiority for WL. ▪️CS also confirmed non-inferior reduction in HbA1c (1.71%) versus tirzepatide (1.67%). REDEFINE 9 was CS 1.0/1.0 vs placebo in obesity. ▪️Weight loss of 21% vs 2% for placebo. These are big numbers for CagriSema. I look forward to seeing the male/female splits in a full data release. ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Reso…

And the market goes MILD!!!

If this is true. I dont think $NVO management can sink any lower. Going on stage with so called guidance, while basically keeping everyone guessing that's one thing. But then claiming in some amateur way when the mic is not off that it's impossible to give guidance.... come on...

If you're thinking $NVO's 2030 ambitions are underwhelming, well they are. But they have to be. This is not about setting unrealistic targets to then not meet them. This is about showing a path forward where growth is back on the table.

$NVO just published their latest revenue targets towards 2030: deliver revenue CAGR in line with industry peers. At first I thought, ambitious, trying to be on par with Lilly. But it seems to mean to be on par with general major pharmaceuticals. Certainly less ambitious but more realistic. Personally, I welcome any significant growth in the next few years as the market is still pricing in almost 0 growth towards 2030. We don't need 10% CAGR to make this a worthwhile investment from here. But i certainly need more clarification on what growth numbers they are targeting. Anyone have more information?

January 2025: nobody knew me. Today: 39k followers on X. 5.2K subs on Substack. I never imagined anyone would care what I had to say about investing, and look where I am today. What started as me randomly posting thoughts on X has become a real side hustle. Not only has all of this made me a better investor and researcher, but it has also provided me with a new life goal: Do this full-time. I love writing and researching too much. I’m still a long way off, and it’s not easy doing this on the side while working full-time and raising a (now) 2-year-old. But the grind continues. My writing will improve. My research will improve. I truly believe success awaits. It’s just a matter of time. Already super proud of the progress I’ve made and all the new friends and relationships I’ve built over time!

When one of your holdings is down 50% from it’s ATH, it’s time to reflect. That’s exactly what I’m doing today, reflect on my Kraken Robotics position. In my latest Substack article I dive into why the stock is down so much and whether the story is still intact. Check it out! tacticzhazel.substack.com/p/… $PNG.NE

$SE back to $105 is a crime.

High-NA EUV Chips Are Coming Soon $ASML has 10 High-NA systems operating across four customers, with 3 more being shipped or installed. Cumulative exposure has exceeded 1.35 million wafers, and the EXE:5200B has reached 135 wafers per hour High-NA raises numerical aperture from 0.33 to 0.55, enabling about 8 nm single-exposure resolution and reducing the need for multi-patterning The main issue is cost. High-NA requires more expensive tools and upgrades across masks, resists, metrology and process control. It also has lower depth of focus and a smaller exposure field Intel leads adoption. Some Intel 18A layers have reportedly achieved comparable yields on High-NA and Low-NA EUV. SK Hynix installed an EXE:5200B in 2025, while TSMC remains cautious DIGITIMES expects initial use on selected critical layers, with broader adoption depending on economics and stitching yield

New $NVO deal with Orbis Medicines for development of oral macrocyclic peptides that will increase bioavailability up to 20%. That would mean 10x less API usage vs NVO current generation SNAC for that’s used in wegovy pill. Also meaning up to 10x more capacity with such new molecules. Total deal value $1.4B As mentioned earlier NVO would likely try to close deals where possible before CMD on Monday. I would not be surprised if we will see more announcements coming shortly. $LLY $VKTX fiercebiotech.com/biotech/no…

This could lead to a big draw-down in AI stocks. What do you think they mean with slowing down?

One of the most obvious shortages in the defense space right now involves the Patriot system. I’ve been digging to see how to benefit from that shortage as an investor and I’ve found a few ways to do that. In my latest Substack article, I explain what the Patriot system is, why there is a shortage, and which companies have the most exposure. I am very proud of this article and had a lot of fun researching this space, and I’d highly recommend you check it out. I discuss: $LMT $RTX $LHX Direct link to the article: tacticzhazel.substack.com/p/…

While I totally understand what @ChairmansLedger is saying, I think the basic premise is wrong. People should not follow or take advice from finfluencers at all. They should be pure inspiration for their own research and thinking. Someone with a 10k portfolio can do just as good, or even better, due diligence than the dudes with the 1M portfolios. I don't care how big the portfolio is as long as they know how to build a proper thesis. I like research and interesting, thought-provoking insights. I couldn't care less if they back it up with a ton of money; that decision is mine. Unfortunately, a lot of the finfluencers only, or mostly, sell their buys and sells. And most of them aren't even allowed to, since they don't have a license. Personally, I hate the bragging about having 1M here and 10M there. And there is a lot of it. And then they start selling $10 subs on X. Fckin pathetic. Most of these dudes still do terrible research; a lot of them have bad risk management and can't string together a proper thesis. And yes, I also have a Substack, but I don't pretend to be a millionaire. (cause I'm not, far from it) My Substack focuses primarily on research, not following my buys/sells.