Macro, Husband, Dad of 3 boys Comments are my own personal opinion; not investment advice and not attributable to my employer. Co-Host of @ForwardGuidance

Austin, TX
The heroes of this generation are usually the villains of the next...
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Easiest secular arbitrage there is....
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The most important theme to watch- Federal US data center policy vs. state data center policy. Right now there is a bipartisan movement at the state level against the data center buildout which is causing peak realized volatility & implied volatility in the momentum factor along with increasing the cost of capital on the fixed income side (due to hyperscaler supply)for the DC buildout @jam_croissant . The state DC policy seems to be winning right now, stultifying the DC buildout like we’ve seen from @GovKathyHochul & @GregAbbott_TX in NY & TX. You could make the argument that the bipartisan political movement is what put a pin in the leverage from Situational Awareness which ironically is something that @leopoldasch actually wrote about in his seminal paper. He even expected the pushback, yet still created the gamma squeeze. Maybe that was strategic to suck in capital to the theme to increase national awareness, but also reinforcing the very pushback from the avg citizen. This state stultification is at odds with the larger Federal policy to win the AI race which is probably the most important geopolitical domain right now. The truth is we need the momentum factor to resolve upwards to keep our strategic lead against China in AI. The longer state policy drags on the buildout, the further we fall behind against China’s advantage on the power side. This idea from @VivekGRamaswamy might be threading the needle for a bipartisan solution. If his solution gains steam to settle adversity on the state level, the theme and upside momentum could have upside legs again while financing costs could drop lower on the fixed income side @GavinSBaker @DavidSacks @chamath @Jason @KurtBauerle A resolution to the war in Iran would also help reinstall the momo factor and 21st century buildout. The cost of capital will rise regardless as the buildout continues, but we need productivity to keep surprising to the upside and be more distributed to the middle class in order to keep the chess pieces moving forward.
MY DATA CENTER POLICY PLEDGE: OHIOANS-FIRST A top concern I hear from Ohioans across our state – second only to property taxes – is the accelerating pace of data center expansion. Key citizen concerns about data centers include rising electric bills, noise, pollution, and the absence of clearly defined economic benefits for Ohio families. The data center industry has badly failed to earn the trust of millions of everyday Ohioans who are struggling with electric bills and property taxes, wondering why large corporations receive property tax abatements while ordinary homeowners don’t receive the same. There are hundreds of data centers already across our state, and the pace of construction is accelerating. While I had no part in these past projects, I am committed to ensuring our policies catch up to current realities. Despite my opponents’ claims, I’m not “pro-data center.” I’m pro-Ohio, and I have a plan to fix the problem. At the same time, I also hear from Ohio's workers about the need to attract high-paying construction jobs to our state, for which the data center boom has been helpful. Preserving economic growth, capital investment, and high-paying jobs in Ohio is also a vital objective. After traveling all 88 counties and listening to workers, farmers, union leaders, building trades, small business owners, environmental groups, and grassroots activists, I am convinced that the best path forward is neither unrestrained data center growth nor a permanent categorical ban. The right answer is a policy framework that allows Ohio families to prosper economically while protecting local communities. Today I am announcing my policy pledge to Ohioans on data centers. If a data center is built in your community, then (i) you will no longer have to pay for your home’s electricity, (ii) you will pay lower property taxes, and (iii) the data center will be required to abide by all air and water quality standards without exception, and we will take the necessary steps to protect Ohio’s fertile farmland. If any one of these three conditions is not met, the data center won’t be built. Period. I will work with Ohio’s state legislature to codify these commitments into law immediately after I assume office. To ensure urgency, I will further issue an executive order on my first day in office to immediately halt the approval of any new data center project announcements in Ohio, until the above-mentioned data center legislation takes effect. These policy objectives are consistent with the principles I have articulated over the first 18 months of my campaign, and today I am making a legislative commitment to codify them into state law. My Democrat opponent recently announced that data centers must not contribute to higher electric bills for ratepayers, a concept that I advocated for in early 2025 long before she started parroting the same. This is obvious but insufficient. We can and must go further for Ohio families. Eliminating electricity costs is the right objective. If Ohio’s governor sets this as a clear requirement and negotiates accordingly, I am confident that hyper scalers would be willing to fully cover the cost of power for Ohioans who reside near a data center. That requires the acumen of a businessman, not a bureaucrat, at the top. This is very practical to implement. Data centers could generate power behind their own meter, and the excess power generated can be credited to the electric charges on a residential customer’s electric bill within a certain radius (the “benefit zone”). This would operate as if customers in the benefit zone had executed a power purchase agreement with the power plant, but at no cost. For example, if a data center is constructed along with a 1,000 megawatt (MW) natural gas or nuclear power plant, and the data center uses 700MW of that electricity, the remaining 300MW would flow to the power grid. State law would define the benefit zone and credit the 300MW across all residential customers within that zone. Even 100MW would power 75,000-100,000 homes. Given the potential to power so many homes, most of Ohio’s counties would fit entirely within a benefit zone – which means every resident in the county would pay nothing for their electricity if a data center were built there. Alternatively, data centers could also directly reimburse residential customers within the benefit zone for their electric bills. In addition to providing free electricity for local residents, my plan would also deliver property tax relief to Ohioans within the benefit zone – by prohibiting property tax abatements for future data centers and creating a property tax rebate for Ohio homeowners. That is, data centers would be required to pay 100% of their property taxes without abatements, and these property tax revenues would directly fund property tax rebates for homeowners. This helps deliver major property tax relief for Ohio families without hurting local police, schools, or firemen – and may become essential with a looming ballot initiative to eliminate property taxes expected in 2027. Finally, my plan ensures that data centers do not receive special exemptions on air and water quality standards and that our farmland is protected. This respects local conservation objectives, while also giving companies a predictable regulatory environment. Simply put: if a data center is going to be built in Ohio, we will require it to minimize its water usage by recycling and reusing its water with the best available technology. We will also require that when the water is released, it comes out just as clean as when the data center took it in. That’s common sense. We will also emphasize the use of vacant and former industrial sites known as brownfields, rather than the use of fertile farmland. Our water and farmland are some of Ohio’s greatest and most precious resources, and my plan ensures that they are protected for all Ohioans. Ohio requires a governor who is willing to listen and to adopt thoughtful solutions that actually put Ohioans first, by carefully weighing costs and benefits rather than spouting off meaningless proclamations. That means supporting economic growth for Ohio’s workers, while ensuring that we do it in a way that helps all Ohioans. In sum, my administration will eliminate electricity costs and reduce property taxes for homeowners, while also ensuring that all environmental laws are respected and that farmland is preserved. No data center will be built in Ohio without actualizing these commitments. I look forward to signing legislation in early 2027 to turn this vision into reality.
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Volatility is opportunity. Volatility is the market battling with two different realities. It takes one person to have an idea, its takes two or more to create a reality.
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When this happens Bessent will come and stifle the vol. The Treasury is now acting like bumpers they put on the bowling alley for children. When fixed-income volatility perks its head, the volatility controllers will backstop the treasury market.
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Tyler Neville retweeted
I’m pretty sure Bessent just told us it’s game-on. The new policy is volatility control for FX and Rates (reasserting the global boomer ponzi) but the purpose is to rebuild a 21st Century economy and solidify new Allied world supply chains. Every time you see put skew get extreme (investors betting on global yields rising), you should expect a state response now. The inevitable outcome is lower volatility in FX and rates just like QE from the Fed. They might have gotten rid of Forward Guidance from the Fed but this move by the Treasury is global volatility control which will now lower global cross currency volatility. The policy is now to grow out of the govt debt and not blow up the global life insurance business model. High cross-currency volatility is what will bring the global insurance asset recycling to it knees and Bessent just backstopped the model making it a slow death by inflation rather than a carry trade unwind crisis. This is somewhat similar to. the reverse trade of when Bessent broke the Bank of England!
The Trump Administration delivers for America's trusted partners. Economic security is national security. And the U.S.-Japan alliance is built on both. Friday's coordinated foreign exchange actions countered disorderly yen movements. Treasury remains attentive and in close communication with our counterparts at MOF and BOJ. We will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention. The FIMA Repo Facility is an important backstop. We would encourage it to be upsized in the coming months. We strongly support Japan's decisive market and monetary steps to correct the substantial undervaluation of the yen. The Takaichi government is moving into an exciting new phase of Abenomics, as nearly 15 years of powerful stimulus have created durable, robust underlying economic dynamics.
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The scientists have been so spot on about everything lately we should probably listen to them this time🤡
Scientists say we need to halve Earth’s population to just 4 billion to save the planet, per Daily Mail.
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QE has moved from the Fed to the Treasury. Statecraft is now the name of the game. Duel mandates are a side show now….
The Trump Administration delivers for America's trusted partners. Economic security is national security. And the U.S.-Japan alliance is built on both. Friday's coordinated foreign exchange actions countered disorderly yen movements. Treasury remains attentive and in close communication with our counterparts at MOF and BOJ. We will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention. The FIMA Repo Facility is an important backstop. We would encourage it to be upsized in the coming months. We strongly support Japan's decisive market and monetary steps to correct the substantial undervaluation of the yen. The Takaichi government is moving into an exciting new phase of Abenomics, as nearly 15 years of powerful stimulus have created durable, robust underlying economic dynamics.
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The generational transition from alpha nerd to alpha male has commenced. Maybe we are watching the reemergence of Stoicism @RyanHoliday Greek philosophers were notably physically capable, reflecting a broader cultural ideal that linked physical excellence with virtue and mental strength. “Mens sana in corpore sano”
Jonah Hill says jiu jitsu has him ready to “annihilate” anyone who still sees him as the fat guy from Superbad “I love Brazilian jiu jitsu, except my body is begging me not to love it. My wife is often like, ‘You’re not going to become a professional fighter. You know that, right? You’re a comedian’” “If we got into it, I would f*ck you up. I would f*ck all three of you up” “My favorite thing is people are like, ‘Oh, Jonah Hill, f*cking fat guy from Superbad.’ And I’m like, ‘I would f*cking annihilate you, dude. I’m not kidding you. Try it. If you see me, try it, dude. Bring it. Who’s got it?’”
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Funny memory of state propaganda… Remember the narrative in the 90s when they said 2nd-Hand Smoke was worse than actual smoking? In hindsight, maybe humans never had actually common sense. Maybe state psy-ops have always been the norm because the middle of the bell curve begs to be brainwashed. The mid-curve is there to existentially assert that they are morally superior by reinforcing the state party line. Of course the state would say this is for our own good. Brainwashing is in exchange to distract us from not wanting to constantly kill each other….
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Just playing devils advocate here. Doesn’t this action just make the BoJ and Fed policy converge where FX adjusted yields are basically the same across both countries. To me this signals that Japan and the US policy will be to reinvest in innovation and grow their way out of the debt as the US reindustrializes and puts China outsourcing in the rear view. Selling the Euro will force globalist stagnation to get in line and start reinvesting in growth and not centralizing the means of production to annihilate the middle class…. This is statecraft not economics… @nfergus @DrPippaM thoughts??!
this is my quant
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Honest question- wouldn’t the Fed selling euros and buying yen be the US telling Europe we don’t need them? Maybe that action by the Fed forcing Europe to choose between growth and stagnation? Maybe it’s a shot across the bow to European globalist orgs who haven’t invested in their own innovation while pillaging the defense of the Western govt’s? Wouldn’t selling the Euro and defending the yen have the adverse effect for Japanese investors? I.e. why would they sell treasuries if the Fed is defending the Yen? This action reinforces that the US is choosing Japan to rebuild its industrial base with weakened dollars. It’s possible that global yields fall on this and the Japanese reinvestment cycle into US assets is reinforced!! Just playing devils advocate here. I’ve seen too many people calling for a blowup in the carry trade now. Would love your thoughts on this @jvisserlabs @RaoulGMI @LukeGromen @ttmygh @SantiagoAuFund @LynAldenContact @fejau_inc @qthomp @robin_j_brooks @crossbordercap @profplum99 @ericwallerstein
Every asset you own was partly financed in Tokyo. That funding is being withdrawn. For thirty years Japan lent the world money for free. Zero rates. Yield curve control. A currency engineered to sink. So capital did the obvious thing: borrow yen at nothing, sell it, buy Treasuries, Nasdaq, emerging market debt, Mexican pesos, credit, anything with a yield, add leverage, repeat until the trade became invisible. Until it was simply the water global markets swam in. Nobody knows how large it got. Estimates run from a few hundred billion to past 10 trillion depending on what you count, which is another way of saying nobody can size the unwind until it is already running. August 2024 was the rehearsal. The Bank of Japan raised rates fifteen basis points. The Nikkei fell 12% in a day, its worst since 1987, and the VIX printed in the 60s. Fifteen basis points. The policy rate is now 1%, the highest since 1995. The yen still hit a 40 year low. Tokyo has burned roughly 133 billion dollars defending it in four months, 59 billion of that in a single night last week. On Friday the US Treasury sold euros out of its own reserve account to buy yen through the New York Fed. The last time Washington intervened for the yen was 2011, after the Fukushima earthquake. There is no earthquake. Underneath the currency, the collateral is repricing. Japanese gross debt sits near 256% of GDP. The 10 year JGB hit a 30 year high. The 30 year broke 4% for the first time since that bond was created in 1999. The 40 year touched 4.24%. Which quietly flips the arithmetic for the largest pool of patient capital on earth. A Japanese insurer buying a US 10 year at 4.7% pays away roughly 250 basis points to hedge the currency and nets about 2.2%. The domestic JGB pays 2.8% with no currency risk attached. Japan holds 1.19 trillion dollars of Treasuries as the largest foreign owner and sold nearly 30 billion in the first quarter alone. The most reliable marginal bidder in the world has started going home, and it is going home for arithmetic reasons, which means it is not coming back when volatility calms down. Everyone will watch the equity selloff. The equity selloff is survivable. The bond market is where this actually breaks. Forced deleveraging and Japanese repatriation hit Treasuries simultaneously, into a market where the 30 year already sits at its highest since 2007 and the Fed just held with three members dissenting in favor of a hike. Stocks fall, bonds fall with them, and the hedge everyone has owned since 1982 stops functioning in the same week they need it. At which point the Fed has no good option left. Oil is driving inflation, so it cannot cut. But a disorderly Treasury market is a systemic event, so if the long end goes it has to step in and buy. That is printing money to hold down the price of government debt while inflation runs above target, and it has a name that nobody at the podium will use. Here is the part almost nobody models correctly. The crash is a distraction. The crash is loud, brief, and recoverable. What follows is a decade of nominal returns that never quite keep up, of a currency that buys slightly less every year, of a central bank that keeps rates below inflation because the alternative is a fiscal crisis. Nobody photographs that. There are no bread lines. There is a person who bought Treasuries because that was the responsible thing to do, held them for fifteen years, and ended up with two thirds of what they thought they had. That transfer is the actual policy. It moves wealth from whoever saved to whoever borrowed, and the largest borrower in the room writes the rules and appoints the referee. Japan built this trap over thirty years and is now walking into it in public. US publicly held debt is at 99% of GDP, the highest since 1946, with net interest headed from roughly 1 trillion to 2.1 trillion by 2036 while the primary deficit actually shrinks. The entire deterioration is interest compounding on itself
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The most important thing to remember in this new market structure….. Last price is a liar! Real price is the equilibrium of liquidity!!
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Most people don’t realize that falling rents mean bigger corporate profits and larger margins and real wages at the household level too. More housing supply means the system is working instead of a weird political ponzi that crucifies your middle class. TX and FLA real estate falling means the system is working.
Austin delivered 81,000 apartments in four years. Now 73% of metro units are offering concessions and avg asking rent has dropped from $1,622 in 2022 to $1,366. Build enough housing and landlords start competing for tenants instead of the other way around!
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Over the next ten years America will realize the repercussions of boomer political force on housing was the inevitable castration of their lineage. Boomers sacrificed grandchildren so they could keep their cost of capital low and their equity high.
Everyone at this meeting is a homeowner paying $3,000 annual property tax on their $4M property or $1,200 a month rent for a 2-bedroom apartment by the bay
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This chart is so epic from @robin_j_brooks and epitomizes what I mean by the Boomer Ponzi scheme. QE over the last 15 Years has hollowed out the foreign ownership of Govt debt. You can see how many foreigners owned govt bonds in 2010 G’s 2025 on the X axis. What happens when there are no more foreigners to buy the debt?!? Clearly it’s Yield Curve control and Western currency crises. We need AI productivity to boom to change this dynamic but it feels like the Warsh Fed and Trump’s Geopolitical mistakes are working against their own efforts to build a 21st century economy. It’s a bipolar outcome- Trump TACOs on Iran and Warsh lowers rates or fiscal hell breaks loose…. What will they choose?!? @infraa_ @SantiagoAuFund @LynAldenContact thoughts?!?
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😂 This says a lot about the state of America…..
These oldsters were dropping acid, dancing naked in Golden Gate Park and living on each others couches 60 years ago… now they’re banning new housing to protect their $7m Victorians
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This is why state governance matters. For many parts of the country, the math for housing ain’t mathin’ If your state has a surplus, good demographics and an influx of forward thinking corporations, owning a house still makes sense. For other states, buying a house is like a vice if you you aren’t sitting on a boat load of equity that accrued in a previous generation.
⚡️The American house has become a permanent inflation conduit. A homeowner now absorbs nearly every structural failure in the economy through one asset. Insurance carries climate risk, rebuilding inflation, and insurer retreat. Property taxes carry municipal fiscal pressure. Maintenance and repairs carry labor shortages, material inflation, aging housing stock, and regulatory costs. Interest carries the federal credibility problem and the bond market’s higher price of money. The purchase price carries decades of restricted supply and asset inflation. Every layer reprices upward independently. That changes the nature of homeownership. The mortgage payment once gradually became easier as wages rose and fixed debt stayed fixed. Now the surrounding costs keep expanding fast enough to consume much of that advantage. Even owners with 3% mortgages remain exposed through taxes, insurance, repairs, and maintenance. New buyers receive the full punishment at once. They pay the capitalized asset price, today’s mortgage rate, today’s insurance premium, today’s tax base, and today’s repair costs. They are purchasing an old house through an entirely new cost structure. That deepens the lock-in. Existing owners cannot afford to surrender cheap debt. Prospective buyers cannot afford the replacement cost. Listings disappear. Mobility dies. Scarcity preserves prices. Rising prices then increase taxes, insurance values, and repair expectations, feeding the carrying cost again. The system has created a reflexive housing trap where ownership becomes more valuable on paper and more expensive to sustain in cash. That is why the country can simultaneously produce record home equity and widespread housing stress. People can be asset-rich, cashflow-poor, and unable to move. The darkest part is that shelter has become the collection point for inflation the official CPI cannot emotionally capture. A 26% rise in consumer prices feels abstract. A 39% rise in the annual cost of keeping the roof over your head reorganizes your entire life. America turned the home into both the primary wealth engine and the primary household liability. Owners cannot easily leave it. Nonowners cannot easily enter it. Everyone pays more to keep the structure intact.
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The next narrative is definitely going to be…. Hyperscalers will start issuing more equity to pay for the AI buildout because fixed income investors are demanding more yield…. What does that do to valuations?! 🤔 It turns out the 15 yr buyback machine and digital advertising arbitrage is over…..
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One of the crazier charts out there. Market structure increasingly important in the short term! "About 75% of deleveraging in leveraged ETF positions appeared to be done, JPM said.  "The AUM of levered ETFs has dropped by over $100bn... and of that $100bn, $63bn AUM has come out of semis. To contextualize that, 39% of levered semi ETF aum has been reduced."
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