Chief economist at @InnovateEconomy. Host of the EconTwitter Water Cooler, live on twitter spaces and downloadable here: anchor.fm/adam-ozimek
Lancaster, PA
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Sounds like a pronouncement that would be made in a late stage where we are losing the war with AI. Read out over the radio.
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Did Microsoft Word pay into the pensions of typewriter manufacturers?
Bill Gates on why we should tax A.I. work: “If you’ve let go of a worker and hired a robot to do that job, why are you so incentivizing the trade-off against the human labor that you don’t ask the robot to also pay into the pension fund? What is it? Is it that the pro-robot union has gotten the tax laws to say: No, if you’re not flesh, then let pensions go bankrupt?”
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What you learn from reading Nathan's piece is just how tricky it is to map real-life economic trends. That's not as sexy as a flashy headline or article about an ostensibly Big New Thing That's Happening, but grasping it gives you a better disposition for understanding the world.
The most careful, detailed, and comprehensive analysis of the methodological approaches to tracking entrepreneurship and the effects of AI you're likely to find, from @ngoldschlag. One of the best things we've ever published. eig.org/ai-and-entrepreneurs…
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In a counterfactual world where US didn't exist, the world would be a lot poorer now.
LLM classification of where 37k inventions listed on Wikipedia were invented. From nber.org/system/files/workin…
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“The science is moving very, very fast”: The experimental GLP-3 weight-loss drug retatrutide just set a new milestone for these medications. Here’s what to know.
spklr.io/6016EpTMq
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The most careful, detailed, and comprehensive analysis of the methodological approaches to tracking entrepreneurship and the effects of AI you're likely to find, from @ngoldschlag. One of the best things we've ever published. eig.org/ai-and-entrepreneurs…
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The "AI simulations will replace human subjects research" argument is wrong because they are almost certainly complements to each other rather than substitutes 1/
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Are startups booming? Is it because of AI? Employers, nonemployers, or both?
I've got a new piece out today showing that nothing is jumping out of the federal statistics just yet.
Short: agglomerations.eig.org/p/ai-…
Long: eig.org/ai-and-entrepreneurs…
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He says we need to define jobs AI and robots aren't allowed to do to protect work. But then says food, housing, and education won't be get better for 20 years because of regulations.
Food, housing, and education are like what one third of jobs?
It doesn't add up
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Bill Gates says we will get superabundance if we make it like 10-20 years, but also says we need to tax robots because otherwise social security will go bankrupt.
I am sorry but it doesn't add up.
nytimes.com/2026/09/29/opini…
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The pain we inflict on automakers:
Bush 43: ↑ fuel efficiency standards to 35 mpg by 2020
Obama: ↑ standards by 5%/yr
Trump 1: ↓ to 1.5%/yr
Biden '22: ↑ to 8-10%/yr in near years
Biden '24: ↓ longer-term gains to 0-2%/yr
Trump 2: eliminated penalties and reversed Biden rules
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3rd gen GLP-1 at lowest dose for 36 wks has weight loss numbers of earlier GLP-1 over full trials, is so tolerable it had lower dropout than the placebo. At higher doses in TRIUMPH-3, crushed a bunch of lipid/BP numbers. Like half the population will eventually be taking these...
🚨TRIUMPH-1 paper is out for retatrutide P3 in obesity . High praise to Dr Jastreboff and her team. 🙌🙌🙌
I asked for:
▪️percentages of patients discontinuing due to excessive weight loss
▪️weight loss thresholds split out by starting BMI (focusing on BMIs 35+)
▪️waterfalls
▪️weight loss by sex
And this has so much more!
▪️Distribution of ending BMI class by starting BMI class
▪️Dose reduction plots
Sooo good! I’ll be adding to this.
doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa260416…
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I do think this remains very relevant for the question of whether AI will replace humans at making music
eig.org/ai-and-the-economics…
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I worry that overhyped concerns about existential risk have made people too dismissive of normal risks. Future AI models will definitely be useful for hacking, fraud, and other banal types of misconduct. We (both labs and governments) probably aren't doing enough to prepare.
I'm at OpenAI DevDay today and it's really striking how little emphasis there seems to be on safety and security here. I'm not sure Sam mentioned it once in his keynote this morning. The agenda appears to have one security-related session out of 17.
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Amazon is the largest single employer of PhD economists, hiring more than 200 since 2017.
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Agreed. I wrote one of these a while back.
noahpinion.blog/p/i-owe-the-…
Good essay from @JustinWolfers: "My Libertarian Friends Were Right"
"My libertarian-leaning friends have consistently argued against a powerful federal government in favor of individual freedoms. I had — somewhat naively — never taken their views seriously enough. My friends who worked in government were good people, I reasoned, and surely that’s true more broadly.
"But I’ve had to admit to my libertarian friends that they were right. Concentration of power can be abused. We’re seeing it happen right now."
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