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🇺🇦⚔️Whilst Crimea is the key to victory, the Donbas is the question of this war. The substance is right and worth saying; the framing is not. Western analysis has not failed to explain the fortress belt. It has explained it repeatedly, and in more detail than a paragraph allows. ⚡️ISW set out the case on 8 August 2025, a week before Alaska: ceding the belt hands Russia what it could not take in more than a decade, with no guarantee the fighting stops. Its dedicated study of the belt, and its April 2026 special report, mapped the ground behind it — eighteen mid-sized towns within 100 km, the Lozova–Izium corridor with few water obstacles, and Russia across the Siverskyi Donets. The Economist and the Atlantic Council ran the same argument in August 2025; the US Helsinki Commission briefed it in April; ISW's standing assessment is that taking the belt by force would cost Russia at least two to three more years. Kyiv's refusal, and European support for it, rest on exactly this reading. Many of us have stated it. @Sulkhan Two corrections. Russia does not need the belt to be 100 km from Kharkiv; it has held ground on the city's northern approaches since May 2024. What the belt covers is the southern approach through Izium and Lozova and, more consequentially, the axes to Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia. And "no wall in between" overstates it. The ground to the west is thinner in towns, roads and river lines, which is precisely ISW's point, but rear lines have been under construction since 2024, whatever their quality. Thinner is the problem; absent is not the claim. "The starting line of 2029" is a fair rhetorical point but rather an unknowable date. The case for the belt does not need to be made against Western expertise. It has been made with it. @general_ben @ChuckPfarrer @WarintheFuture @AlGGDirect @cwindley
Zelensky called Donetsk region "the question of this war." Let me explain why in one paragraph, because most Western commentators can't. Sloviansk–Kramatorsk–Kostiantynivka is a fortress belt Ukraine built over ten years, the last high ground before flat steppe to the Dnipro. Hand it over "for peace" and the next war starts 100 km closer to Kharkiv and Dnipro, with no wall in between. Russia isn't asking for territory. It's asking for the starting line of 2029. That's why Kyiv says no, and why anyone who says "just the Donbas" has never looked at a contour map.
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Axel L. Jacob retweeted
Leute, redet nicht weiter drumherum. Was wir brauchen, sind 30 neue Kernkraftwerke, und gut ist.
Deutschland dürfte in rund zehn Jahren etwa 200 bis 300 Terawattstunden mehr Strom pro Jahr benötigen. Das entspricht ungefähr 40 bis 60 Prozent mehr als heute. Allerdings umfasst dieser Zuwachs neben der Elektrifizierung auch neue Verbraucher wie KI Rechenzentren. Mehr Strombedarf, weniger gesicherte Kraftwerksleistung. Genau darin liegt der Widerspruch der deutschen Energiepolitik. Daniel Wetzel beschreibt in WELT die Größenordnung: Laut Bundesnetzagentur könnte bis 2035 ein Neubaubedarf von 35 Gigawatt Kraftwerksleistung bestehen. Das entspricht etwa 70 großen Gaskraftwerken. Gleichzeitig sollen bis 2030 weitere 15 Gigawatt steuerbare Kohlekraftwerke vom Netz gehen. Link: welt.de/wirtschaft/plus6ac60… Die im Artikel zitierten Experten warnen: Deutschland gehöre „strukturell zu den Ländern mit den höchsten modellierten Versorgungssicherheitsrisiken. “Die 35 Gigawatt sind eine Leistungsgröße. Die zusätzlichen 200 bis 300 Terawattstunden beschreiben dagegen die jährlich benötigte Strommenge. Deutschland muss beides sicherstellen: genügend Energie über das Jahr und genügend verfügbare Leistung in jeder Stunde. Eine Jahresbilanz versorgt keine Fabrik während einer Dunkelflaute. Noch mehr Solarmodule lösen die Versorgung einer windstillen Winternacht nicht. Batterien können Strom nur zeitlich begrenzt verschieben. Auch industrielle „Flexibilität“ hat Grenzen. Sie kann bedeuten: Die Produktion steht, weil Strom fehlt oder zu teuer ist. Für manche Prozesse ist Lastverschiebung sinnvoll. Eine energieintensive Industrie lässt sich aber nicht beliebig nach dem Wetter betreiben. Produktionsverzicht ist keine zusätzliche Stromerzeugung. Veronika Grimm schlägt laut WELT eine Absicherungspflicht vor: Versorger sollen ihre Lieferverpflichtungen langfristiger absichern, bei Verstößen drohen hohe Strafen. Die Idee verdient eine Prüfung. Wer Strom verkauft, muss Verantwortung für dessen Verfügbarkeit tragen. Der Artikel zeigt zudem das Problem staatlich finanzierter Notfallreserven: Stehen Kraftwerke außerhalb des regulären Marktes, können sie dort weder laufend Erlöse erzielen noch durch ihre Teilnahme Preise senken. Entscheidend ist auch, wie neue Kapazitäten in den Markt eingebunden werden. Aber auch das beste Marktdesign baut kein Kraftwerk über Nacht. Investoren brauchen verlässliche Regeln, tragfähige Erlöse und schnelle Genehmigungen. Deutschland will Verkehr, Wärme und Industrie elektrifizieren und Rechenzentren ansiedeln. Dafür brauchen wir bezahlbare, möglichst fossilfreie Erzeugung und wetterunabhängige Leistung. Naiv bedeutet, etwas zu gutgläubig oder unkritisch zu betrachten und dabei Risiken oder komplizierte Zusammenhänge zu unterschätzen. Beispiel: „Es wäre naiv zu glauben, dass sich dieses Problem von allein löst.“ #energiepolitik #gesicherte #leistung #rechenzenter #ChangeAtG Screenshot: WELT
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Axel L. Jacob retweeted
Russian military blogger says Ukrainian mid-range drone strikes on the main Russian supply route in occupied southern Ukraine have almost ceased because of the throttling of Starlink. No need to elaborate on what this new freedom of logistics for Russia means for the frontline.
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🇩🇪Les Allemands Terribles ft. 🇬🇧 N-Trance @afneil
🇫🇷 Stayin' Alive 🕺🕺🕺
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Axel L. Jacob retweeted
The scale of Chinese transshipments to Russia via Central Asia is unprecedented. China's exports to Russia are up $62 bn per month from pre-invasion. They're up $46 bn per month to countries in Central Asia in the same period. The Beijing - Moscow axis... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…
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Axel L. Jacob retweeted
When the next Prime Minister arrives he needs to Channel this energy.
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Well, he is the Secretary of State & National Security Adviser to the President of the United States of America. A lack of information is the one thing he does not suffer from. @RepDonBacon @ralexdc @SchullerKonrad @gregbagwell @DrChrisParry @ChuckPfarrer
WATCH!! “What happened last night I don’t know exactly” — Rubio tells me he can’t confirm reports that Kyiv received no early warning before Russian ballistic missiles struck Kyiv overnight, citing a lack of information. He acknowledged a separate early-warning system software issue days earlier, but said the U.S. has not changed its diplomatic footprint in Kyiv 👇
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I agree. Unfortunately our President has picked the “evil aggressor.” Reagan and Eisenhower are rolling in their graves.
Russia/Ukraine is not a “both sides” moral equivalence thing. One side is the evil aggressor. The other side is defending their sovereign homeland.
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KAMIAINSKE-HULIAIPOLE AO: Russian command has tasked capture of Orikhiv, Preobrazhenka, and Tavriiske by end of October. This is assessed as highly unlikely. Russian claims of major gains into Orikhiv, capture of nearby settlements, or advances to within 5 km of Zaporizhzhia city are false.
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Axel L. Jacob retweeted
I can’t help but notice some Americans are using Tesla demoing a shell concept car hopping for two seconds as some kind of global claim of technical superiority. Well… Thrust-based vertical manoeuvring? Developed in Britain in 1957, culminating in the Harrier Jump Jet, with the P.1127 making its first hover in 1960. And the upside-down car stuff? That’s fan-generated downforce, already demonstrated by British car company McMurtry with its electric Spéirling, which has been destroying track records around the world for the last few years using that exact technology. So let’s not confuse demonstrating an existing engineering principle for the first time in a Tesla prototype to inventing the underlying technology. And the difference is, both the Harrier and McMurtry are real world products, not vastly adapted prototypes designed for a single demonstration. Rule Britannia, spiffing stuff boys and all that. 🇬🇧
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Axel L. Jacob retweeted
Mich graust‘s nur noch. Die Rechten laden uns den Putinfaschismus auf den Hals, die Linken den Islamogauchisme, und die ganz normalen Deutschen, die einfach nur arbeiten, für ihre Familie sorgen und ihr Leben in Freiheit leben wollen, werden in der Mitte zerrieben.
Hat eine Partei jemals so offen erklärt, dass sie mithilfe von migrantischen - sprich: arabischen und muslimischen – Wählern Wahlen gewinnen möchte und deshalb mehr (auch irreguläre) Migration anstrebt? - Berlin soll „sicherer Hafen“ für irreguläre Migranten werden, sprich: sie anziehen. -Wahlrecht für alle nach 5 Jahren Aufenthalt. -Die Landesregierung will alles tun, damit Menschen, die eigentlich gar nicht in Deutschland sein dürften, so lange wie möglich hier bleiben. (Seite 22 des rot-rot-grünen Sondierungspapiers)
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Axel L. Jacob retweeted
“we will pay any price….to assure the success and survival of liberty.” Is this still true? Do we prize liberty or do we prize power and purse? No more clear test than the choice between Ukraine and Russia. Abandon Ukraine and we abandon liberty. Eventually even our own.
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Axel L. Jacob retweeted
Ce magnifique édifice — un monument démocratique — n’existe plus après ce soir. Les barbares sont en train de l’emporter.
These degenerates can destroy, but they can only dream of being able to create something so beautiful. The French govt could have chosen to protect this and other historic sites. Instead it chose to indulge the savages. What a mess
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Axel L. Jacob retweeted
Read this powerful article by @thetimes , and reflect on what has been shared.. This is not just “persecution by (extremely clumsy) process” imposed upon active-duty SAS operators fighting to detain vicious ISIS thugs in an active war zone, but also an example of performative self-immolation initiated by the most senior UK Special Forces officer at the time (G Jenkins) as self-serving exercise in what HE calls ‘transparency’…… So, if someone, anyone (quite possibly an enemy) within an active war zone says the SAS killed an unarmed man, then the so-called ‘senior leaders’ (some, as in this case, with near-zero combat experience) within the Whitehall-based ‘UK system’ desperate to demonstrate something that they call ‘transparency’ (or whatever else floats the MOD’s boat), will automatically launch an aggressive RMP operation to detain the SAS men involved…. Not on the basis of any hard evidence (there is no crime scene, no bodies, no bullets etc), but purely on distant, uncorroborated hearsay and remote, delayed analysis of operational reports; all supported by desk-bound, chinless leaders that seemingly care more about how they will (personally) look in an MOD promotion board than trying to properly understand the circumstances faced by the SAS men and defend them accordingly. What a gift this utterly pathetic weakness, low threshold investigative process and twisted self-defeating system gives to our many enemies….and what an awful message it sends to those that still volunteer to fight on our all of our behalves….
🔺 EXCLUSIVE: How did a secret mission in Syria lead to a crisis within Britain’s special forces? Insight, The Sunday Times investigations team, can reveal the full story behind an SAS operation in Syria in 2022 — and its aftermath thetimes.com/uk/defence/arti…
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Axel L. Jacob retweeted
“Who, after all, speaks today of the annihilation of the Armenians?”— Adolf Hitler, speaking of one of his inspirations for genocide. I don’t expect a Columbia professor to know this sort of thing anymore, but Abraham Lincoln was not responsible for the Armenian genocide.
Zohran Mamdani's father: “America is the root of all evil in the world, and it was the inspiration for the Nazis. Hitler learned genocide from Abraham Lincoln.”
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Axel L. Jacob retweeted
Replying to @johnhawkinsrwn
I say you’re being deliberately callous about the fact such actions would greatly increase the likelihood of mass slaughter and rape of innocent people, greenlighting the imperial ambitions of our adversary, embolden another adversary China, and further imperil our allies in Europe and Asia. If that’s your policy preference I can’t talk you out of it. But I don’t think it’s a good look or good for your soul to be so glib about the consequences of your ill-argued and poorly reasoned policy preferences. You could at least try to feign some regret at the horrors you’re encouraging.
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Axel L. Jacob retweeted
The U.K. must not deploy troops to Ukraine for peacekeeping. You’ll only keep the peace there if you are prepared and politically authorised to fight and kill Russians. The best peacekeepers for Ukraine are Ukrainians. Arm them to the teeth.
🚨 NEWS: British troops are preparing for a possible deployment to Ukraine, with at least 1,500 military personnel from Britain, France and Germany set to take part in major exercises in Poland next month. According to The Times, the exercises will simulate deploying European forces into Ukraine following a potential ceasefire with Russia, including troop movements and the transportation of weapons, fuel and essential supplies. Defence Secretary Wes Streeting confirmed that thousands of personnel would participate in the November exercises to prepare for military training and post-war reconstruction.
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Axel L. Jacob retweeted
To put this in laymen's terms, Musk and Trump are now hobbling Ukraine's ability to protect its civilian population from a type of Russian drone that functions more like a cruise missile. This is not the United States adopting a neutral position vis-a-vis the war. This is the United States facilitating Russian terror.
Ukraine's Starshield terminals still don't work properly, President Zelensky confirms, disabling Ukrainian interceptors used to shoot down Russian jet-powered drones that have been hitting civilian targets in recent weeks. kyivindependent.com/planned-…
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RT @KeirGiles: It took an enquiry from The Times to remind me that I was watching the last days of Russia trying to influence the Brexit vo…
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Axel L. Jacob retweeted
Ex-#BND-Chef #Hanning hielt nach dem Ausscheiden aus dem Dienst jahrelang Kontakt zu einem engen Vertrauten von Wladimir #Putin: Nikolaj Patruschew. Auch noch nach dem Angriff auf die #Ukraine 2014. FAS-Bericht über die Neben-Außenpolitik eines deutschen Rentners:⬇️
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