First home opener loss for Green Bay since 2012

Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Thu September 24 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 30 - OCT 04, 2026 The persistent and unusually strong mid-level ridge over the south-central Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) finally started to weaken this week. However, above-normal temperatures albeit with much less intense heat remain favored for this region along with areas from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast due to southerly flow ahead of a pair of cold fronts. A predicted variable temperature pattern results in near normal temperatures across the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and Northern to Central Great Plains. A mid-level ridge with positive 500-hPa height anomalies supports an increased chance of above-normal temperatures for the Desert Southwest, Great Basin, and California. A pair of cold fronts are forecast to cross the eastern half of the CONUS which favors above-normal precipitation for this region. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), powerful hurricane Polo, in the East Pacific, is predicted to turn northward towards the Baja California Peninsula by early next week. Enhanced low to mid-level moisture, associated with Polo, is likely to overspread the south-central CONUS and become entrained into a cold front. In addition, abundant Gulf moisture is expected to interact with two frontal passages. Therefore, above-normal precipitation probabilities are enhanced from eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley north to the Ohio Valley. Probabilities exceed 50% in areas where the ECENS depicts a widespread area of more than one inch of precipitation. Below-normal precipitation is most likely across the Great Basin and Northern Intermountain West due to a building ridge aloft. The preferred ECENS and CMCE depict an amplified 500-hPa trough over southwestern Alaska. Downstream of this trough, a couple of low pressure systems are likely to develop across the Gulf of Alaska. Enhanced onshore flow, associated with these low pressure systems, favors above-normal precipitation for a majority of Alaska with the largest above-normal precipitation probabilities (> 50%) across southeastern Alaska. Although tropical cyclone Nolo is likely to be tracking away from Hawaii by day 6, heavy precipitation may linger and enhanced above-normal precipitation probabilities (> 50%) are forecast from Sep 30-Oct 4. The GEFS and ECENS support an increased chance of above-normal temperatures throughout Hawaii with the largest probabilities forecast for the Big Island. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 20% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to overall good agreement among the temperature and precipitation tools offset by uncertainty associated with differences between the ECENS/CMCE and GEFS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 02 - 08 2026 The ECENS and CMCE are in good agreement and consistent with a more amplified longwave 500-hPa pattern during early October, featuring a deep trough over the northeastern Pacific, strengthening ridge across the Rockies, and a trough of moderate amplitude centered over the eastern CONUS. The 7-day mean height pattern from the GEFS is more zonal and considered an outlier solution with only minor weight given to this model solution in the 8-14 day manual height blend. The amplifying 500-hPa ridge and positive height anomalies favor above-normal temperatures throughout the western third of the CONUS. Above-normal temperatures are also more likely for the eastern CONUS and closer to the Gulf Coast due to predicted anomalous warmth early in week-2. Based on the preferred ECENS and CMCE which are cooler than the GEFS, near normal temperatures are favored for much of the Great Plains and Middle to Upper Mississippi Valley. Due to a building ridge centered over the Rockies, near to below-normal precipitation is favored for nearly all of the western and north-central CONUS. The most likely area for below-normal precipitation is across the northern to central Rockies and High Plains, underneath the mid-level ridge axis and away from any enhanced moisture from the East Pacific. NHC is monitoring the formation of a low pressure system to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepac which has a 80% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone (TC) in the East Pacific during the next week. This potential TC may track northward towards the Baja California Peninsula early in week-2 which could bring enhanced low to mid-level moisture to the Desert Southwest. Despite the building ridge aloft over the western CONUS, elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities are forecast for southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. Along an eastward advancing cold front at the beginning of week-2, above-normal precipitation is slightly favored for the Ohio Valley, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic. The front is expected to slow its southward progression and above-normal precipitation probabilities are larger (>40%) for portions of the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast. A few ensemble members from the preferred ECENS indicate TC genesis across the Bay of Campeche during early October and this will be closely monitored. A persistent and amplified 500-hPa trough over the northeastern Pacific along with enhanced onshore flow favor above-normal precipitation across the eastern two-thirds of Alaska. Similar to the 6-10 day period, the largest probabilities (> 50%) are forecast for southeastern Alaska. Anomalous southerly flow favors above-normal temperatures across eastern Mainland Alaska and southeastern Alaska, while below-normal temperatures are more likely for western Mainland Alaska to the west of the mid-level trough axis. The GEFS and ECENS support an increased chance of above-normal temperatures and precipitation for Hawaii. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 20% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good agreement among most of the temperature and precipitation tools offset by continued differences between the ECENS/CMCE and GEFS. FORECASTER: Brad Pugh